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UK Troubled Families Programme — National Evaluation

UK Department for Communities and Local Government / Ipsos MORI · England, United Kingdom · 2017

Summary

The UK Troubled Families Programme is one of the most important null results in British social policy. The government had claimed that 99% of families in the programme were being 'turned around' — a claim based on administrative data that tracked meeting predefined milestones rather than comparing outcomes to a counterfactual. The independent evaluation, which used a matched comparison group, found no statistically significant effect on any outcome. The suppression of the results — leaked before official publication, with full release resisted for months — makes this a case study in institutional resistance to negative findings. The evaluation found that 'turning families around' in administrative data was often a measurement artefact, not a real change. The programme cost approximately £1.3 billion.

Research question

"Does an intensive key worker programme for high-need families reduce crime, truancy, unemployment, and reliance on social services?"

Methodology

Intervention

Local authorities assigned dedicated key workers to 'troubled families' (families with multiple overlapping problems: unemployment, school exclusion, crime involvement, health issues); key workers coordinated services and provided intensive support over 2 years

Assignment

Matched comparison group with difference-in-differences (no randomization — largest family programme evaluation in UK history)

Sample size

Approximately 400,000 families in treatment; matched 50,000 comparison families

Primary outcome

Unemployment; school exclusion; crime involvement; benefit receipt

Effect estimate

No statistically significant effect on any primary outcome; point estimates near zero for employment, crime, school attendance, and benefit receipt

Decision

Programme continued despite null results due to political commitment; a successor programme (Stronger Families) was launched in 2019; evaluation findings largely suppressed until Freedom of Information requests in 2016

Result

Null

No statistically significant effect on any primary outcome; point estimates near zero for employment, crime, school attendance, and benefit receipt

Evidence strength

Moderate

Quasi-experimental design; causal interpretation requires care.

Replication status

Open for replication

Institution

UK Department for Communities and Local Government / Ipsos MORI

Location

England, United Kingdom

Year

2017

Policy area

Benefits Enrollment

Mechanism

Community engagement

Other trials of this mechanism

Cite this entry

UK Department for Communities and Local Government / Ipsos MORI. (2017). UK Troubled Families Programme — National Evaluation. The Experiment Society Registry. Retrieved from https://www.experimentsociety.org/registry/uk-troubled-families (primary report: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-evaluation-of-the-troubled-families-programme-2015-to-2020)

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