UK Troubled Families Programme — National Evaluation

Summary

The UK Troubled Families Programme is one of the most important null results in British social policy. The government had claimed that 99% of families in the programme were being 'turned around' — a claim based on administrative data that tracked meeting predefined milestones rather than comparing outcomes to a counterfactual. The independent evaluation, which used a matched comparison group, found no statistically significant effect on any outcome. The suppression of the results — leaked before official publication, with full release resisted for months — makes this a case study in institutional resistance to negative findings. The evaluation found that 'turning families around' in administrative data was often a measurement artefact, not a real change. The programme cost approximately £1.3 billion.

Research question

"Does an intensive key worker programme for high-need families reduce crime, truancy, unemployment, and reliance on social services?"

Methodology

Result

Null

No statistically significant effect on any primary outcome; point estimates near zero for employment, crime, school attendance, and benefit receipt

Evidence strength

Moderate

Quasi-experimental design; causal interpretation requires care.

Replication status

Open for replication