Brazil Bolsa Família Conditional Cash Transfer

Summary

Brazil's Bolsa Família is the world's largest conditional cash transfer programme and one of the most studied. The regression discontinuity design using the per-capita income eligibility cutoff provides credible estimates: families just below the threshold — statistically similar to those just above it — showed significantly better school enrollment, vaccination rates, and food consumption. The programme's contribution to Brazil's dramatic poverty reduction during the 2000s has been extensively documented, with causal attribution using multiple identification strategies producing consistent findings. Like other CCT evaluations, Bolsa Família raises questions about the necessity of conditionality: similar gains have been found in unconditional programs, suggesting the cash rather than the behavioral requirements drives most effects.

Research question

"Does a large-scale national CCT program reduce poverty and improve human capital outcomes for children in extreme poverty?"

Methodology

Result

Positive

Child school enrollment: +4 pp; vaccination: +3 pp; household food consumption: +16% for extreme poor; poverty headcount: contributed to 29% reduction in extreme poverty 2002–2011 (program component)

Evidence strength

Moderate

Quasi-experimental design with replication support.

Replication status

Replicated