PROGRESA Conditional Cash Transfer
Mexican government (SEDESOL) · Rural Mexico · 1997
Summary
PROGRESA is the most influential anti-poverty experiment in modern policy history. Its village-level randomization allowed clean causal identification of a conditional cash transfer program's effects on health, education, and consumption. Positive results across every dimension prompted the World Bank and IADB to fund replications across Latin America, Africa, and Asia. The CCT model—cash transfers contingent on specific behaviors like school attendance—is now the dominant anti-poverty design worldwide, with PROGRESA as the foundational evidence.
Research question
"Do conditional cash transfers tied to school attendance and health clinic visits reduce poverty and improve human capital?"
Methodology
Intervention
Bi-monthly cash transfers to mothers in poor households, conditional on children's school attendance (85%+) and regular health clinic visits
Assignment
Randomized controlled trial (village)
Sample size
506 villages (320 treatment, 186 control); ~24,000 households
Primary outcome
School enrollment, health outcomes, consumption, nutritional status
Effect estimate
School enrollment: +3.4 pp secondary (girls); child illness days: −23%; consumption: +11%; child stunting: −1 cm height gain; effects larger for girls and youngest children
Decision
Program expanded to cover 5 million families (renamed Oportunidades, then Prospera); conditional cash transfer model replicated in 60+ countries
Result
Positive
School enrollment: +3.4 pp secondary (girls); child illness days: −23%; consumption: +11%; child stunting: −1 cm height gain; effects larger for girls and youngest children
Evidence strength
Strong
Randomized trial, replicated across multiple sites or studies.
Replication status
Replicated
Institution
Mexican government (SEDESOL)
Location
Rural Mexico
Year
1997
Policy area
Cash Transfers
Mechanism
Cash transfer