Stockton SEED Guaranteed Income Pilot

Summary

The Stockton SEED experiment was the first randomized evaluation of a guaranteed income in a mid-sized American city. The most counterintuitive finding — subsequently replicated in similar programs — was that unconditional cash increased full-time employment rather than reducing it. Recipients used the income floor to take risks: pursuing interviews, acquiring certifications, leaving part-time jobs for full-time opportunities. The experiment directly tested and rejected the claim that guaranteed income creates dependency. The modest sample size is a limitation; the direction and magnitude of effects are consistent with parallel evidence from Finland and GiveDirectly.

Research question

"Does a monthly guaranteed income improve employment, financial stability, and well-being for low-income residents?"

Methodology

Result

Positive

Full-time employment: +28 percentage points over control by month 12; income volatility reduced; anxiety and depression scores improved significantly

Evidence strength

Strong

Randomized controlled trial with large sample.

Replication status

Partially replicated