SEED (Stockton Economic Empowerment Demonstration) · Stockton, CA, USA · 2021
Summary
The Stockton SEED experiment was the first randomized evaluation of a guaranteed income in a mid-sized American city. The most counterintuitive finding — subsequently replicated in similar programs — was that unconditional cash increased full-time employment rather than reducing it. Recipients used the income floor to take risks: pursuing interviews, acquiring certifications, leaving part-time jobs for full-time opportunities. The experiment directly tested and rejected the claim that guaranteed income creates dependency. The modest sample size is a limitation; the direction and magnitude of effects are consistent with parallel evidence from Finland and GiveDirectly.
Research question
"Does a monthly guaranteed income improve employment, financial stability, and well-being for low-income residents?"
Methodology
Intervention
125 residents of census tracts at or below median city income received $500/month for 24 months via prepaid debit card with no conditions; 200 control group members
Assignment
Randomized controlled trial (household)
Sample size
125 treatment, 200 control
Primary outcome
Full-time employment rate; income volatility; anxiety/depression measures
Effect estimate
Full-time employment: +28 percentage points over control by month 12; income volatility reduced; anxiety and depression scores improved significantly
Decision
Program ended per design; findings contributed to California state legislation (AB 2588) establishing a guaranteed income pilot framework; 11 cities launched follow-on programs